China is the world's largest coal producer, accounting for more than 35% of the world's coal production, with the increasing shortage of oil resources, coal chemical industry has become the focus of China's medium and long-term energy development strategy. According to the National Development and Reform Commission's "Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Coal Chemical Industry (Draft for Comments)", by 2020, the total investment in coal chemical industry will reach more than 1 trillion yuan, of which equipment costs will account for 50%. In the process of coal mining, due to the involvement of various types of flammable gas and toxic gas with different properties, the industry needs a wide range of gas detectors and instruments, and the demand is large. In 2012, the preliminary statistics of national coal production were 3.66 billion tons, and in the coal mining industry, the safety monitoring system of mines with an annual output of one million tons needs to lose about 500 gas sensors per year, which is calculated every yearGas sensorThe total demand is 1.83 million, of which 80% is gas and 20% is toxic gas.Flammable gas detectorsThe market capacity is 1.464 million. But the coal industryFlammable gas detectorsMost of them are portable, which is a low-value and high consumption, with an average of 600 yuan per unit to calculate the market demand of the coal industry of 878.4 million yuan. The number of toxic gas detectors is 366,000, but most of them are portable, which belongs to the low-value and high-consumption average of 2,000 yuan per unit (set) to calculate the market size of 732 million yuan.
(4)gas detectorIndustry characteristics analysis
1. Business model
Gas detectors are used in a wide range of industries, and the environments used are different, and the products vary greatly. Most of the enterprises in the industry adopt the business model of sales and production, and usually only produce after receiving orders, but some enterprises will process and produce some general products to reserve at the peak of sales.
2. Industry profit level and change trend
According to the survey of the top 5 enterprises in the industry according to the data released by listed companies in the industry, the profit level of the gas detector industry is average, and the average profit margin in the industry in 2012 is about 12%, compared with 15% in 2011. Among them, the profit margin of the listed company Hanwei Electronics is the same as the overall trend of the industry, both showing a downward trend, from 29% in 2011 to about 21% in 2012.
According to HC.com's interviews with experts and enterprise surveys, it has led to recent yearsgas detectorThe main reasons for the decline in industry profits are as follows:
(1) Affected by the macroeconomic situation, the demand for metallurgy, petrochemical and other industries with higher profits has decreased, and these industries are industries with higher equipment requirements and higher profit margins, so it affects the decline in profit margins of the entire gas detector industry;
(2) At presentgas detectorThe industry only needs to carry out type certification, no need for compulsory certification, the entry threshold is low, in a relatively disorderly competition situation, some large enterprises in the industry in order to expand market share, are also adopting low-price strategies to occupy the market, so it also lowers the profit margin of the industry as a whole.
Figure 1gas detectorchanges in industry profit margins
3. Industry cyclicality
gas detectorThe industry mainly provides testing equipment for gas, petroleum, metallurgy, chemical, coal and other industries, and some downstream industries are affected by the national economy and macroeconomic regulation, and there will be a certain cyclical and indirect effect on fixed asset investmentgas detectorThe industry shows a certain cyclical nature in individual industries. However, due to the large number of industries involved, the overall industry cyclical nature is relatively weak.
4. Industry seasonality
Industrial usegas detectorInstrument products are widely used in gas, petroleum, chemical, metallurgy and coal mining industries, and the procurement of users in the above industries usually makes a procurement budget in the first quarter of the beginning of each year, bidding in the middle of the year, and the final engineering construction and equipment installation are mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter of the second half of the year.
5. Industry regionality
Because the products are used in gas, petroleum, chemical, metallurgy, coal and other industries, the application industry is wide, and the product volume of this industry is not large, the transportation cost is not high, so the regional nature of the industry is not obvious.
Favorable factors affecting the gas detection industry
1. Downstream industries maintain stable development
gas detectorIt is widely used in petroleum, chemical, coal, metallurgy, gas and other industrial production, and plays a crucial role in preventing gas explosions and gas poisoning accidents in industrial production. In 2013, fixed asset investment in the petroleum, chemical and metallurgical industries continued to maintain a stable operating trend.gas detectorAs a related industry of the above industries, the industry will also maintain good development with the increase in the scale of downstream industry investment.
2. The frequency of product replacement is fast
In general,gas detectorThe working environment is more complex, in the industrial plant, there is a large amount of dust and various polluting gases, dust entering the detector is inevitable, poor maintenance will lead togas detectorDetection errors or non-detection. Therefore, the gas detector should be inspected and cleaned regularly, and if the product is found to be damaged, it should be repaired or replaced in time. In addition,gas detectorIt is estimated that the current market size of the entire country is roughly tens of billions. It can be seen from this,gas detectorThe market capacity of the product is still very huge.
3. The state has issued a series of mandatory legal norms
It is very easy to occur in oil and gas exploration and coal mining and productiontoxic gas leakageIn order to reduce the occurrence of accidents, the state has introduced some mandatory regulations on oil and gas and coal mining. In the production process of oil and gas field exploration, development, gathering and transportation, it is the normFlammable gas detection alarmAccurately forecast the concentration of flammable gas and prevent fire and explosion accidents, and formulate the "Flammable Gas Detection and Alarm Use Code"; In order to prevent personal injury, fire and explosion accidents, and ensure the safety of petrochemical enterprises, the "Petrochemical Flammable Gas and Toxic Gas Detection and Alarm Design Code" has been formulated. According to the Regulations on Gas Management of State-owned Coal Mines, high-gas and protruding mines and low-gas mines with high-gas areas must be equipped with reliable mine safety monitoring systems. According to the "Safety Regulations for Hot Operations in the Petroleum Industry", all storage tanks, containers and other equipment that need to be fired should be analyzed for internal and surrounding environmental gases, and the gas analysis should include flammable gas concentration, toxic and harmful gas detection, oxygen and nitrogen concentration detection and analysis.
The introduction of mandatory provisions of the stategas detectorThe products are mandatory to be used in oil and gas exploration, coal mining and chemical productiongas detectorThe development of the industry brings opportunities.
Headwinds affecting the gas detection industry
1. The contradiction of downstream overcapacity is prominent
Currently, asgas detectorThe key downstream industries of the industry, such as metallurgy, petroleum, chemical industry, and coal, all have serious overcapacity.
In 2012, the growth rate of investment in metallurgy, petroleum, chemical industry and coal industry was lower than that in 2011. In 2012, China's coal inventory reached 344 million tons, and the problem of overcapacity began to become prominent, and China's coal production capacity is expected to reach 4.6 billion tons in 2013, and overcapacity may reach 500 million tons. In addition, the growth rate of China's steel production capacity is higher than the growth rate of demand, and the crude steel production capacity has increased from 420 million tons at the end of 2004 to 970 million tons at the end of 2012. The contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity is prominent. The overcapacity of these industries has led to a decrease in demand for gas detector products.
2. The competitiveness of domestic enterprises is weak
At present, domesticgas detectorThere are more than 100 production enterprises in the country, the market concentration is low, there are few companies that do well in China, and there is a lack of leading enterprises.